If you are making a forecast system and perform a risk analysis for forecasting. Then it is impossible to skip variations and uncertainty in forecasting.
For instance, we need to require a large amount of past data for performing a risk analysis that makes the future unpredictable and unseen data or events that change your project. So it changes the project dilemma.
Because Monte Carlo analysis does not try or eliminate risk and also uses thousands or millions of random variables that help you to calculate all outcome results and possibilities.
And also generate remarkable and sometimes accurate data in Forecasting in project management.
WHAT’S IN IT
What is Monte Carlo Analysis
Especially, the Monte Carlo method is a technique in math that helps you to take accountable risk and uncertainty and variables outcomes.
Therefore, the Carlo method is used in different fields of science subjects like project management. And also use physics, and although used for computational biology systems with dynamic outcomes.
Let’s consider a simple example given below.
For example, Suppose A, B, C, and D are the same and its output will be calculated the same which is very easy. And also we can lead with the same output in simple examples.
Then Imagine if A has a range of different possible values. That converts your output has different variables and many possible inputs and possible values but this time output is not simply calculated. So we need a Monte Carlo Simulation in different possibilities of input.
However, The Carlo method is a field that is used for computational processes to simulate the process of millions of times or using the whole variability range for each input. And also Probability distribution occurs in output and many possible outcomes.
So it uses a range of simulated data generated through computation. So, That produces remarkably accurate models for real systems.
History of Monte Carlo Analysis
Thus, In 1940, Scientists at Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory investigated how neutrons could travel in different types of materials that help to research to provide the best shield from radiation.
As there are many types of data required in this research but they could not find a solution by using the deterministic mathematical method in common use at that time.
Particularly, Polish American physicist Stanislaw Ulam has generated ideas from different random experiments. When he was recovering from illness and playing Solitaires at different times and trying to predict the possibility of outcomes through 52 cards perfectly.
But his calculation failed to predict the answer. So he is trying to predict the answer simply 100 times and in this stage each time the result will be different.
Therefore, This idea is very applicable to neutron diffusion problems. Due to this top-secret, the scientist chose the name of Monte Carlo. So, This is a code name for the idea.
Due to limited computation tools, the Monte Carlo method is a key step in Manhattan Project Research. As a result, it will be evolved and improved. Therefore, Used in different methods like operations research, project management, artificial intelligence, fluid mechanics, molecular biology, and many more.
Performing a Monte Carlo Analysis for Risk Analysis
Accordingly, To perform a Monte Carlo Simulation for your project duration. Firstly, you need to Estimate your activity duration.
Example of Monte Carlo Analysis
For example, Suppose you have three activities like A, B, C. And our project manager estimated the optimistic and pessimistic, and the most likely duration for all tasks in this situation are measured in days.
| Activities | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Most Likely |
| A | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| B | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| C | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Total | 30 | 29 | 32 |
Brief Example
For example, this is the best case estimate for 30 days and almost 30 to 40 days estimated. But does not show the probability and possibility of ranges in these options.
If you are using the Monte Carlo Simulation then it will give you a whole range and possible input for the duration of time.
However, For iteration, I will have a random value between 8 to 10. Then B has given 10 to 14 and the last C between 12 and 16. When you run the Monte Carlo Simulation 200 to 300 times will give you the result of something like this.
| Duration in days | Completion percentage |
| 29-31 | 7% |
| 32-34 | 36% |
| 35-37 | 42% |
| 38-40 | 16% |
Finally, This simulation example provides you with a wide range of detailed analyses of your data. So, This enables you much better in data-driven project management decisions.
Templates of Monte Carlo Analysis
In short, there are many types of Templates used for Monte Carlo Analysis. Some of them are as follows.
Randomator
Earlier, Randomator was used for defining random inputs. So, That Generates pseudo Analysis in Excel using its built-in formulas like rand (), Ran between (), Norminv (), etc.
Iterator
Iterator is most simple for iterating or repeating steps in excel.
Analyticator
For instance, This template is used for providing data in histograms, pie charts, and bars.
Interface
In this case, Making an interface for your providing data in the spreadsheet and supposing input for different outcomes in providing data.
Advantages and Disadvantages
| Advantages | Disadvantages |
| To show Result in Probabilistic. Provide a wide range of possibilities. And also outcomes for your providing data including damages and situations in business disputes such as patent infringement and many more. | Sometimes using a valid distribution for your data gives a valid result and also wrong distribution causes a wrong result. |
| However, providing a graphical representation of your data and outcomes helps you indicate your data damages and analyzing your business performance. | In Particular, Carlo’s method is good for startup companies’. And sometimes related input is valid for the key success of the company. A growing business is related to valid inputs. |
| Also, providing and sensitive scenarios of your analyzing data that help to increase the performance and improvement and evolve your business. | Afterword, This method is formula based. So, Sometimes formulas are not straightforward and cause a negative result for providing data. |
Monte Carlo simulation business risk analysis
However, risk assessment is very important for environmental projects. So, That consists of the probability that achieves a satisfactory result and normal performance of the threshold. Above all, it provides the value of the internal rate of return(IRRR) and net present value (NPV).
Therefore, Risk Estimation is providing the system is healthy and protected from damages. And some steps are following.
- First, selection investment for the project because it improves the time and quality of your project.
- Then, estimating the project risk.
- Furthermore, estimate the Exceeding time for your project.
- Last, Include the implementation period of your project that increases the growth of your system and project.
Tackling predictive certainty
In other words, predictive uncertainty is the most decision-table scenario. That model provides a great value when you want to reduce uncertainty and calculate the risk-based future outcomes.
Suppose you are a statistical analyst and already know the value of input variables like the cost of materials and the price of a project, then you charge from a client in an open market and understand the profit.
For instance, you build predictive models through historical data such as linear regression.
On the other hand, you build a model that predicts the result of previous historical data and provides you with your project.
In this case, you don’t know some or all input variables, in that case, linear regression and similar techniques provide problems.
Generally, If the situation of many predictive exercises where your input variables can be trying a forecast for a specific outcome of independent variables that come simulation techniques of Monte Carlo analysis risk in a very hard situation.
Conclusion
In summary, we are discussing the Monte Carlo introduction. And also History of Monte Carlo Analysis. Firstly, To understand how to perform Monte Carlo Analysis Risk for Forecasting through Simple Example and also read some templates of Carlo method for your project.
Although discussing the pros and Cons of the Carlo Method. Then discuss the Business Risk Analysis for the project and tackle the predictive certainty and Lastly the conclusion.
Also you can read our blog on 3 Practical Steps To Conduct A Cost-Benefit Analysis